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Venezuela: María Corina Machado’s Disqualification Looms Over 2024 Presidential Election

In the upcoming year of 2024, the disqualification of María Corina Machado appears to be the only certainty in Venezuela. Experts consulted agree that the Chavista regime will do whatever it takes to prevent the opposition leader from competing in the presidential election, as this would pave the way for an imminent political transition. Faced with this challenge, Jesús Seguias, president of Datincorp and political consultant, believes that the opposition will have to opt for a consensus candidate if they want to remain on the electoral path. «If the disqualification remains in place, then the game will be to find a consensus candidate who enjoys the government’s trust. It’s tough to say, but that’s the reality. María Corina will not be allowed to run because the government does not trust her. Just a few months ago, she said she wanted (Nicolás) Maduro alive to put him on trial and send him to jail,» argues Seguias. Machado achieved a resounding victory in the opposition primaries. Photo: Iván Reyes. Another reason why the disqualification is expected to be upheld is that the regime’s strategy of dividing the opposition vote does not work if Machado is the candidate. «It is evident that (Machado) would sweep the elections. She has established a highly emotional connection with voters, and that is the jewel in the crown,» points out Seguias. However, it is unclear whether the coordinator of Vente Venezuela is willing to «sponsor» another candidate. In November of this year, the opposition leader ruled out this option. «Is Machado willing to step aside? We still don’t know. She is within her rights to protest and fight to be allowed to run. She is using language that could help her, but the real issue is how trustworthy she can be for the government,» reaffirms Seguias. Seguias highlights that 2023 was a year of significant progress for the opposition, citing the Barbados agreement, the unity candidacy through primaries, and the return to the electoral path as the most important achievements. «This puts the opposition in a closer position to bring about change than the insurgent adventures of the past. Elections are where the government is weakest,» he points out. Regarding the Chavista regime, the consultant affirms that the PSUV urgently needs to transition into the opposition in order to survive as a political party. «As long as they remain in power, they will wear themselves out even more because the only way to stay in power is through repression,» he questions. «The idea is to lay the groundwork for a transitional government in which Chavismo feels included,» he emphasizes. The Chavista regime responded to the primaries by calling for a consultative referendum on the Essequibo. Photo: Mairet Chourio. The TSJ’s Move Political scientist Paola Molina Noguera believes that the opposition must focus its efforts on protecting Machado’s candidacy and ensuring the expressed will of the October 22 primaries is upheld. In her opinion, the parties must work towards gaining internal support and international backing, while the opposition candidate secures the votes of other sectors of the population, such as dissatisfied Chavistas. Molina also referred to Machado’s decision to go to the Supreme Court of Justice as part of the mechanism agreed upon for the review of disqualifications within the framework of negotiations. «Machado could not leave any legal loopholes that could be counterproductive. It is not a matter of appealing the measure or intrinsically accepting the disqualification, but rather fulfilling a legal requirement so that this cannot be used against her later,» she explains. Regarding 2024, her reading is that «Venezuela is facing an atypical electoral process, which does not allow for completely predictable scenarios, as the rules of the game are set by the judge and jury, since the electoral and judicial authorities are neither independent nor transparent.» Four Scenarios for Venezuela in 2024 Political scientist Ana Carolina Crespo Carruyo outlines four possible scenarios for Venezuela based on two key variables: the cohesion of political actors and the fulfillment of the Barbados agreements. First scenario: greater cohesion and greater fulfillment The faction that manages to garner the most votes and mobilization could win an election even if it is not competitive. Second scenario: lesser cohesion and greater fulfillment The ruling coalition prevails due to the disintegration of the alternative. This could open the door for other actors to assume the representation of the opposition, allowing reformists within the ruling coalition more freedom of action. Third scenario: greater cohesion and lesser fulfillment The actors who manage to unite advance. In this case, it is more likely that the opposition will achieve cohesion, and this scenario presumes that the lack of fulfillment by the ruling coalition will make sanctions and the Barbados agreements an existential game to force compliance. Fourth scenario: lesser cohesion and lesser fulfillment of agreements We would enter a scenario of uncertainty, with political actors dispersing internally, making room for the emergence of outsider actors who would assume the representation of both sides. «The transition presupposes the will of the parties, at least of the actors in the democratic alternative, around points such as unity of action, purpose, and an end to internal factional struggles. Unity and strategic vision are necessary for the alternative to gain ground towards a transition,» she argues. The political scientist emphasized the importance of creating a narrative around a collective dream, with an inclusive vision that brings together all Venezuelans regardless of their party preferences. According to the specialist, it is more likely that an outsider will emerge to break the polarization than an alternative presidential candidate from within the PSUV.